![]() ![]() The effect appears to be explained by the sunk-cost fallacy - letting nonrefundable costs influence future decisions. Those who had to pay - whether they chose to or not - gave more weight to the advice, even if they were as confident in their initial answers as others who had not paid. The students were either charged nothing for the advice or were charged a fee that would be deducted from the final payout based on the number of correct answers. They were then asked to answer the same set of questions but could now receive advice in the form of a fellow student's answer to the same question. In several experiments, university students were asked to date various events in American history. IF YOU'VE EVER paid a fortune-teller, a consultant, or a therapist, perhaps you can relate to some new research on the psychology of advice. and Roychowdhury, V., "Theory of Aces: High Score by Skill or Luck?" Journal of Mathematical Sociology (April 2008). Then they would have been famous - and lucky. If the war had continued, the study suggests, others would have likely beaten the Baron's record. When the war ended, there were many pilots with perfect records in the sky. Using a sophisticated statistical analysis, they found that pure luck played a large role in air combat, and that perhaps a quarter of the pilots were more skilled than the Red Baron. ![]() the Red Baron), who is credited with 80 victories. The researchers began with a list of the wins and losses of all German fighter pilots, including that of the most successful pilot, Manfred von Richthofen (a.k.a. A new analysis of the performance of the Red Baron in World War I offers an interesting addendum to this debate. THROUGHOUT HUMAN HISTORY, people have debated whether success is determined by luck or talent. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |